source: Baidu Wenku time:2018.10.31.
China's demand for mineral resources is huge, and the foundation for mining development will not be shaken.
Although the growth rate of consumption of many important mineral resources in China has slowed down, the total amount will still show a slow growth trend, and the domestic resource supply situation is not optimistic. First of all, the basic national condition of insufficient resources has not changed. Despite the remarkable achievements in prospecting in recent years, the huge population base, the per capita possession of large or important mineral resources is substantially lower than the world per capita level. Domestic mineral resources supply capacity is seriously inadequate, so that China's external dependence of more than 50% of the mineral species more than 10; Secondly, some important mineral resources of poor quality, domestic supply capacity is greatly affected by the market. Therefore, the slow growth of consumption of important mineral resources in China has not changed the nature of serious shortage of domestic resources.
For example, iron ore, China's announced reserves of iron ore resources exceed 85 billion tons, the calculation results show that if the price of iron ore is 60 U.S. dollars / ton, the available reserves are less than 10 billion tons. The higher the international iron ore price, the lower the external dependence, the lower the price, the higher the external dependence has become the "strange state" of China's iron ore supply. Taking copper as an example, China's cumulative demand of 210 million tons in 2030, even if it maintains 70% external dependence, China will supply 72 million tons of copper. At present, China's copper reserves are only more than 30 million tons, including Tibet, all the reserves developed, it is difficult to meet their own needs of 30%, copper resources supply situation is very grim. Other major mineral resources, such as aluminum, lead, zinc, uranium, chromium, manganese, tin, antimony and other supplies also need to be given high attention.
Experts believe that China is still in the middle to late stages of industrialization, infrastructure construction and social wealth accumulation level is far lower than that of developed countries. Except for crude steel and cement, the consumption of major mineral resources will still be on the rise in general. Although the growth rate of consumption is slowing down, the per capita consumption of resources is still at a high level and will continue for some time. Moreover, some advantageous minerals may be turned into inferior ones, and the safety supply of mineral resources can not be ignored.
Lu Zhicheng, Deputy Engineer of the Development Research Center of the China Geological Survey Bureau, held a forum on "Silk Road Mining. 2017". He believed that despite efforts, the reserves of important mineral resources in China had increased substantially, the situation that domestic resources could not meet the demand would not fundamentally change, and the external dependence of important minerals would remain for a long time to come. The level is maintained at a high level. It is predicted that the external dependence on oil, iron ore, copper and aluminum will be over 60%, 80%, 70% and 50% respectively in 2020. By 2030, the external dependence will still be high or increase, estimated to be about 70%, 85%, 80% and 60%, and the risk of resource supply will still exist for a long time. At the same time, the number of years of static support for oil, iron ore, copper, aluminum, gold and other important mineral resources has declined. It is expected that the total number of years of support will be about 10 years in 2020, and will be further reduced to less than 10 years in 2030. The energy resources security will be severely challenged.
At the same time, we must be soberly aware that even if industrialization is completed, to support the normal operation of a country with a huge economy, whether for energy and mineral resources, or as raw materials, the demand for mineral resources, will still be huge, the foundation of China's mining development will not be shaken. That is to say, only after the completion of new industrialization and into post-industrialization, the pressure on mineral resources demand will be reduced. Nevertheless, mineral resources are still needed as the most basic material support to continue to realize the dream of China.